Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Quants, Stats & Financial Crisis

  One of the most insightful & mathematically meaningful articles that I've read about the mortgage meltdown.. http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=all

Quoting Paul Wilmot from the article, 
    "The relationship between two assets can never be captured by a single scalar quantity," Wilmott says. For instance, consider the share prices of two sneaker manufacturers: When the market for sneakers is growing, both companies do well and the correlation between them is high. But when one company gets a lot of celebrity endorsements and starts stealing market share from the other, the stock prices diverge and the correlation between them turns negative. And when the nation morphs into a land of flip-flop-wearing couch potatoes, both companies decline and the correlation becomes positive again. It's impossible to sum up such a history in one correlation number, but CDOs were invariably sold on the premise that correlation was more of a constant than a variable." 

 --  Anybody who has read Taleb ( Fooled by randomness / The black swan )  too would find this article very much insightful .